Our Real Estate Market Analysis — Wailea & Makena

Residential — Momentum

The residential market is showing strong momentum in activity, with year-to-date closed sales up +125% and pending sales up +75%, signaling renewed buyer engagement at the high end.

Homes are also selling faster, with days on market down 17% YTD, reflecting improved absorption.

Pricing has significantly adjusted, with median and average sales prices down roughly 70% year-over-year. This sharp shift is largely influenced by smaller sample sizes and a change in the mix of sales, rather than a true collapse in luxury values.

Sellers who are well-positioned on pricing are seeing stronger results and higher list-to-sale ratios. Inventory has increased modestly, while months of supply has tightened to 11.6 months, indicating a gradual move toward a more balanced market.

Condominiums — Transitioning

The condo market presents a more mixed and selective environment. While year-to-date closed sales are up +16.7%, both new listings and pending sales have declined, pointing to more cautious buyer behavior.

Pricing has softened, with median prices down 30% YTD, again influenced by which properties are trading (location, view corridors, and quality). Despite this, properties are still achieving strong execution, with list-to-sale ratios holding near 95%+.

Inventory has grown to 104 units, and months of supply has expanded to 16.6 months, reinforcing that this segment currently favors buyers, particularly in non-front-row or less differentiated inventory.

Land — Limited

Land data is not broken out in this report; however, based on current market behavior in Wailea and Makena, the land segment remains highly niche and opportunistic.

Activity is typically driven by long-term vision buyers and developers, with limited transactions creating variability in pricing trends.

Well-located parcels — especially those with ocean views, privacy, and build-ready infrastructure — continue to command premium interest, while more speculative parcels require strategic pricing and patience.

Overall Market Insight — Balanced & Disciplined

The market is transitioning into a more balanced and disciplined phase, with improving activity but greater selectivity from buyers.

We are seeing strong gains in closed sales and pending activity, particularly in the residential segment, which signals renewed confidence and engagement at the luxury level.

At the same time, properties are selling more efficiently, indicating that well-priced homes are finding the market.

Headline price declines across both homes and condos are misleading at first glance. These shifts are largely driven by the mix of properties sold, rather than a true reduction in the value of premier Wailea and Makena real estate.

Inventory has expanded in the condo market, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power. This is creating a more competitive environment for sellers, where pricing, presentation, and property quality are critical.

Bottom Line

The market is no longer driven by urgency, rather by strategy and quality. Well-positioned properties continue to perform, while buyers are taking a more thoughtful, opportunity-focused approach.

• Activity is rising, especially in the residential segment, signaling improving confidence.
• Price fluctuations are largely mix-driven, not necessarily indicative of declining luxury demand.
• Inventory is building, creating more choice and negotiation opportunities, particularly in condos.
• The market is transitioning toward a more balanced, normalized environment after prior ultra-tight conditions.

Blind Spots to Watch

• Small sample sizes can exaggerate price swings; headline numbers may not reflect true luxury asset values.
• Quality differentiation matters more than ever (front row, views, new construction outperforming).
• Global economic and interest-rate sentiment could influence discretionary luxury purchases.
• Regulatory uncertainty (STR zoning) may continue to impact condo demand and investor behavior.

---

---

Oceanfront Lahaina Property Owners May Get Buyout in Updated Disaster Plan

The county is seeking an amendment to create a voluntary buyout program with some of its $1.6 billion fire recovery grant from the feds.

Maui Food Bank Purchases 8 Acres in Central Maui

Maui Food Bank has completed the purchase of an eight-acre parcel of land located in Central Maui for $9.25 million.

---

Big Island Hawaiʻi Approves New Tier 3 Tax Rate for $4M+ Second Homes

The nine-member body passed Bill 128 with five ayes during the general council meeting.

---

Bozeman Yards — The Residences: A New Altitude in Mountain Living

At the foot of the Bridger Mountains, where nature’s grandeur meets Bozeman’s cultural core, Bozeman Yards rises as a pioneering residential address.

---

Paradise Valley, Arizona — 6149 E Indian Bend Road

Chris Karas, Exclusive Listing Broker

A true masterpiece by Drewett Works, this home is a perfect blend of sleek, modern design and unparalleled luxury. From the moment you step inside, the stunning views of Camelback and Mummy Mountain will take your breath away.

---

Deborah Stanton — UK Regional Partner

Deborah Stanton is a Regional Partner with over 14 years of experience in prime central London property. She brings strong local knowledge, strategic insight, and calm professionalism to every search. Since joining Garrington, she has advised on acquisitions across London’s most competitive neighborhoods, earning consistent client praise for her thoughtful, detail-oriented approach.

---

Rhea Balfour — Edinburgh, Scotland

Originally from Shetland and now based in Edinburgh, Rhea has spent over 20 years working in the Scottish property industry. Her background includes senior roles with some of Scotland’s most well-regarded property firms, along with experience managing private homes and overseeing high-end renovation projects.

---